She drowned
Why are floods increasing in Russia?
Author: Tatyana Rybakova
This year, Dagestan, Chechnya, and Ingushetia have experienced the start of the spring flood season: overflowing rivers have demolished houses and washed away roads and dams. Climate change is often blamed for this. While the climate is indeed changing, the problem is largely man-made.
The North Caucasus has suffered the worst flooding in the last 100 years, and a state of emergency has been declared in the region – headlines like these full of Media reports at the end of March. Rain and melted snow in the mountains, which Russia has seen in abundance this year, overflowed rivers, flooding towns and villages, engulfing crops, and wiping out bridges, houses, and roads. Unfortunately, there were casualties. Now, of course, there will be debriefings about how well the authorities prepared for the disaster, and there will be debates about compensation. Officials will naturally insist that this is a unique phenomenon and therefore impossible to predict: what can you do? Global warming. But experts have long been saying: while the disaster itself cannot be controlled, its consequences can and should be minimized. And this should have been done not yesterday, but decades ago.
Is the climate to blame?
Let's start with climate change. Indeed, global warming isn't so much about palm trees growing in Moscow, but rather about changing temperature fluctuations and—most importantly—humidity. Generally, with warming in northern latitudes, it's not so much that summers become hotter as winters become warmer. However, summers become drier, and winters, correspondingly, become wetter. "Warmer" refers to average annual temperatures. Climate change brings with it more extreme weather events within seasons—unexpectedly severe frosts and heat waves, heavy rains and snowfalls, as well as unusually long dry periods, strong winds, and prolonged anticyclones. In short, extreme weather events are indeed a result of climate change. However, natural disasters don't equal destruction. Humanity has long since learned to prevent or minimize their consequences. St. Petersburg is a case in point: the city, initially prone to flooding, is now protected by a dam that prevents tragic consequences.
I remember a business trip to Derbent, where in 2012 went through A devastating mudslide literally wiped out eight streets and killed six people. Then, too, an unprecedented amount of rain fell in the mountains before the tragedy. But here's what we discovered during the trip. A canal runs along the hill above the city. During Soviet times, its bed was regularly cleaned and its banks reinforced. Then it was abandoned. The bed became overgrown, the canal's capacity decreased, and its walls, accordingly, weakened. And when heavy rains fell and mountain rivers brought a volley of water into the canal, it, mixed with rocks and earth from the unprotected banks, gushed over the city. The question is: are the elements to blame, or are people?
In Russia, spring floods and floods are one of the main natural risksThe regions most at risk in this regard are Siberia, the Far East, the North Caucasus, and the lower reaches of major rivers—the Volga, Amur, Yenisei, Ob, and others. The total area of flood-prone territories is 400 square kilometers, of which approximately 50 are inundated annually. Catastrophic flooding threatens a total area of 150 square kilometers, home to 300 cities, tens of thousands of settlements, and over 7 million hectares of agricultural land. Is this enough to warrant action?
No money but you hold on
Moreover, these measures have long been known. In northern regions, where floods are primarily caused by ice jams on rivers, advance ice breakup is used. Where floods are caused by overflowing mountain rivers, dams are built and the riverbeds are dredged in flat sections. And everywhere, riverbed cleaning and bank reinforcement are used.
All of this has long been spelled out in various state programs, there is even a national project “Ecology”, and officials have been report about their successful implementation, but cities and villages continue to sink. What's going on?
For example, a federal project Water of Russia The plan calls for clearing approximately 1065 km of riverbeds across the country by 2030. A total of approximately 24 billion rubles is planned, plus additional funds: for example, 815,5 million rubles were allocated in 2025, 9 billion in 2026, plus 1,1 billion in compensation. This sounds substantial, but Russia alone has tens of thousands of kilometers of flood-prone stretches. Along major rivers alone, there are an order of magnitude more than the planned 2030 cleanup: for example, on the Don, over 1,800 km, and on the Volga, over 3,500 km. But even this unambitious plan is stalling this year: is planned Only 17 bodies of water are being cleared, and only in certain areas: Seliger (27,11 km), Gruzskaya (18,3 km), Ambarnaya (16,81 km), Medveditsa and Tuskar (15 km each), and others. The reason is that there is no money in the federal budget, and even less so in the regional budgets.
The same applies to coastal protection. According to expert estimates, the cost of building modern coastal protection structures For example, gabions on flatland rivers cost around 60,000 rubles per linear meter. Curbing the banks of mountain rivers is even more expensive. According to expert estimates, strengthening only on flatland rivers need Several thousand kilometers of the most dangerous coastal areas. That's not even billions—it's trillions of rubles. But somehow, there's never been enough money for this, even in the most prosperous years. And now—even more so.
Dams and other hydraulic structures are the first and foremost obstacle to water volleys: by adjusting the dam gates, water can be gradually released into low-lying areas. Fortunately, they were built quite extensively during the Soviet era. But several decades have passed since then—many of them need in repairs and modernization. And these are again amounts that are simply out of the question given the current state of the budget. Unless, of course, we remember that by the beginning of this year, the war in Ukraine had already been spent Around 40–50 trillion rubles. Had the government spent this money on flood protection, tragedies like the one currently unfolding in the Caucasus could have been avoided. In the meantime, the now-famous phrase, "There's no money, but hang in there," can be repeated not only to the victims but also to the banks of Russia's rivers.
That scary word "maybe"
But even in the face of chronic underfunding for flood prevention, there are some things that don't require money. Moreover, these aren't actions, but rather compliance with the prohibition against them.
For example, there's a ban on building on the shoreline. The rule here is simple: the weaker the banks, the more likely the river is to flood, the further away the line where construction is permitted. This rule isn't universally observed.
For example, in the same Dagestan along the coast there were built Not only private homes, but also multi-story buildings. Living in a house by the water is prestigious, and such plots always command a premium—it's no wonder that developers always find a way to "convince" officials to grant permission. However, sometimes they build without permission or exceed permitted boundaries—something that all sorts of permitting and regulatory authorities "overlook."
This is a case where corruption kills, and the astonishing inability of officials to predict the consequences—including for themselves—is striking. But Russian officials, unfortunately, haven't been staying in one place for long in recent years, so everyone hopes they'll be able to move on to another position before something bad happens. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, but no conclusions are drawn.
This problem is particularly acute in the North Caucasus: in this region, the word "illegal construction" has long since become a part of everyday vocabulary. And we're not usually talking about favelas: these "illegal constructions" are often quite high-quality mansions, or even, as already mentioned, luxury apartment buildings. While officials may have some objective reasons not to fear the consequences, it's difficult to understand the motivations of those building and buying these houses and apartments. Are they hoping for the best?
Construction in flood-prone areas must also comply with special measures, primarily regarding foundation design. Unfortunately, even builders themselves are often unaware of these regulations—to say nothing of the people who live in houses that literally float away in the event of a flood.
Risk areas
It is difficult to compare the level of flood risk and the adequacy of protective measures, but it is possible to identify regions that account for the largest number of insurance payments for water-damaged properties. According to counting According to VSK Insurance House, floods account for 76% of insurance payouts due to natural disasters by 2025. The regions most at risk of flooding include Orenburg (40%), Kurgan (15%), Udmurtia (6%), Karachay-Cherkessia (3,5%), Moscow (3,5%), and Chelyabinsk (2%). Incidentally, Krasnodar Krai, long considered one of the leading regions with a high risk of natural disasters, has become one of the safest in the country—possibly because significant coastal protection and river clearing work were carried out in preparation for the Sochi Olympics, and all manner of illegal construction along the banks was removed.
Residents of high-risk areas can also take some measures themselves. For example, stabilizing exposed banks with soil-stabilizing plants. I still remember how, as schoolchildren, we regularly went on community service days to plant willow trees along the banks of the nearest river. Of course, an overgrown bank doesn't look as beautiful from the window, blocking the view of the river, but safety, you must admit, is more important. Of course, it makes sense to avoid violating coastal protection lines. In areas prone to severe flooding and near mountain rivers, it's best to avoid building houses with basements—in fact, it's better to build houses on pile foundations, after a preliminary geological survey.
Local authorities should improve river monitoring, especially for mountain rivers. In Dagestan, for example, so many casualties and destruction occurred because the flooding was unexpected: a large amount of snow had piled up in the mountains, and with the arrival of warm weather, it began to melt rapidly. However, methods for monitoring the snow cover that feeds the upper reaches of rivers have long been known: fortunately, it can now be monitored not only from expensive helicopters, but also with inexpensive drones. However, war intervenes again here: currently, the launch of drones risks alarm and air defense deployment.
On According to According to Roshydromet, high-intensity flooding is expected in 16 regions of the Central, Siberian, and Far Eastern Federal Districts in the spring of 2026. The situation in some areas is predicted to be more severe than in 2025, when river levels in central European Russia were below the annual average, and the flood was assessed as low. However, even last year, localized emergencies were recorded in certain regions (Krasnoyarsk Krai, Minusinsk) due to rapid snowmelt and dam failures, leading to flooding of residential buildings and forced evacuations. This year's snowy winter will release a much greater volume of meltwater into the rivers. And if the spring is warm, with a rapid onset of high temperatures, it is sadly possible that the current tragedy in the North Caucasus is only the beginning.
