Time to read: 14 minutes(s)

Maxim Katz, a Russian politician, political strategist, blogger, urbanist, and professional poker player, emigrated to Israel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He was declared a "foreign agent" and sentenced in absentia by a Russian court in August 2023 to eight years in prison for "spreading fake news about the Russian army." We spoke with him about the presidential elections, the prospects of the Russian opposition, and the Putin regime.

Why does Putin need this war?

"I think the original plan was to extend his power: to stage a small, victorious war, like he did with Crimea, and then use that as a basis for elections, which are quite unpleasant for him. But now things have gotten out of hand. It's unclear why he needs it, but he can't bring it to an end."

If Putin had not started the war, would he have had another way to win the election?

"Well, of course he was. He could have continued doing what he'd been doing: continuing a sluggish existence in an already aging, withered autocracy. In principle, this could have continued for quite a while without any upheavals, but upheavals did occur. He wasn't really heading for a downfall yet; he looked pretty strong in '21-'22. He certainly looked much stronger then than he does now."

There are two months left until the presidential election, but the opposition lacks a unified strategy. What do you think should be done?

"Now we need to sign for Nadezhdin. Previously, we supported Duntsova. All of this will change. We'll see who remains registered. Perhaps we'll be able to vote for someone less offensive. Davankov is quite amusing there. Perhaps we can vote against everyone, meaning spoil the ballot. Putin needs to get more than half of all the votes in the ballot box, including the spoiled ones. Boycott—no. Those who remain silent don't count. The main thing is to come and speak out unequivocally against Putin; that's very important."

Street polls show that people still support Putin. What would have to happen to stop people from voting for him?

"We need to make sure that people don't get 10 years in prison for this, or 8. I got 8. When your political position is criminalized, no one takes it publicly, that's understandable. But we see from many signs that citizens are not at all enthusiastic about the war, they don't intend to go to it, they don't support it, they don't draw the letter "Z" on their faces, and in general they don't share their leader's enthusiasm at all. Of course, when they conduct surveys, call people at home and ask, "Are you for Putin or should we give you 10 years?" people say, "Yes, and what about me," or refuse to answer. The vast majority refuse. If we can't find out people's real opinion now, then we must judge by their actions. From their actions, we see that they declared mobilization, somehow scraped together 300 men, and a million left, and it was the largest single emigration from Russia in its entire history. Never before has there been such a thing as the entire city of Samara leaving in a matter of weeks." This is very significant; it shows people's real attitudes toward what's happening, because it's clear that for every person who left, there are 10, maybe even 100, who didn't leave but are also against it. Because leaving is a very serious step. All this shows that Russian society doesn't like this at all. Most people are either against it or don't want to talk about it, but they're still against it.

You once actively helped independent municipal deputies get elected. Today, many of them are abroad. What can be done from abroad?

"The main things that people in general, not just deputies, can do are two things: create content and distribute it, because the Russian state can't reach you, and finance independent media and Russian public projects that exist and have survived—Novaya Gazeta, Dozhd, Ekho, Mediazona, OVD-Info, Agora, and FBK. What's illegal to finance from Russia can be done abroad. An association of deputies has formed, and, in principle, a united voice could be heard, but conflicts and disputes have immediately erupted, so there's no unified voice yet."

Two independent presidential candidates have emerged in Russia: Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin. Duntsova has already been rejected, and Nadezhdin, they say, will be rejected. Was there any point in them running at all?

— Of course. It's clear that we're not talking about Pamfilova announcing that Duntsova or Nadezhdin has become president of Russia. We're talking about demonstrating to the elites and Russian society that Putin has no support. All these methods are perfectly suitable for this. When Duntsova, a complete unknown, runs—she had zero national visibility, I'd never heard of her before she ran, even though I'm interested in politics—and suddenly she starts gaining popularity super-fast. It's looking like she'll defeat Putin at any moment, and she'll have to be removed from the election. This clearly shows us the state of Russian society. The lines we're recording on video today—a huge line just formed outside Nadezhdin's headquarters in Voronezh—this shows that people want something completely different from what they're saying on TV. This is very important, it's a strong signal. So, yes, he'll most likely be removed too. It's very likely. No matter, there are next steps we can take. Everyone could suddenly rally behind Davankov. I don't even know what his last name is; I've never heard of him before. They can throw any number of ballots against Putin, it doesn't matter, the important thing is that they're against Putin. This is the main message Russian society needs to send now, firstly, to each other—people in these lines see everyone standing there—and secondly, to the Russian elites and Putin himself: that's it, he has to go, he's no good anymore. What will happen after that—we don't know. Maybe he'll bring in tanks and still retain power—we don't know, but that would be a very significant change compared to the situation when the ballot boxes open and there's a solid 80 or 70 percent for him, like last time, when the entire opposition decided not to participate and not go—a strike.

Let's imagine that Russia became free...

— That's a strange way to phrase it. As if it were some kind of fairy tale.

It is unlikely that this will happen in the next 5 or 10 years.

— It will happen in 10 years for sure, in 5 years—very likely. I think it's very likely that Putin won't hold on for long. At the very least, it's not a matter of decades. Firstly, he can be removed in these elections. If Russians vote against him, he'll be gone. He might try to cling on and hold on, but he's not Lukashenko; there's no one to save him. If he figures out a number when he already has more than half of the votes, that'll work, but if he figures out a number when he has 20%, or 15%, or 10%—no, then it won't work. The people won't accept him; rallies will overthrow him. Either rallies, or the elites, will overthrow him, or he'll be forced to cling to power through brute force. In other words, we're talking about rivers of blood and remaking the system into something like Venezuela. But it's not easy. Our country is much more advanced, more educated, we have completely different elites, and turning Russia into Venezuela is no trivial task. And it's far from certain that he'll succeed. So now everything is in the hands of Russian society.

So you believe that people will come out to protest?

It's not a question of faith. What does "believe" have to do with it? People will come out to protest, I know. If people see that their victory has been stolen, they will come out to protest. This always happens, even in harsher systems. Lukashenko had a much harsher dictatorship in 2020 than Russia has now, but they came out. People come out, and there are no special people living in Russia. They are just the same as everywhere else. They are simply intimidated. Well, when they feel there is a chance, they will come out. They were intimidated in Belarus too, and things were much worse there, but they came out, and they will come out here too. And then: this is too good a strategy, from all sides—to move again towards Westernization and building relations with the West. Any future ruler of Russia will definitely go in this direction and open the door, and then it will be unstoppable.

Russia has become free. Would you like to run for president?

— No, I don't have that in my plans right now. I'd like to create a large liberal party that, without any pretense or pretense, will say directly: "We are the liberal party of Russia. If you want to join, go ahead." We'll nominate candidates everywhere, we'll make it effective, it will be the best at running campaigns, it will invite everyone, it won't exclude anyone, as is currently the case in Yabloko, it will welcome everyone. It should integrate into Russian society and become a part of it, like the big parties in America or Britain. There are people with liberal views everywhere, and in Russia there are a lot of them—at least 20%. If you look at the values ​​people express, it's generally around 60%. We need a liberal party that will always have a clear 20%. Most likely, [the party could] be in power in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, and other large cities. It will have a mayor and a majority in the Duma. I want to build such a party; that's what I want to do. And as for where I'll run for office later, we'll see. I don't have a great desire to be elected, I want to build a party.

Some believe a fascist dictatorship has been established in Russia. How would you characterize the current government?

"That's nonsense. There's no fascist dictatorship. There's an electoral autocracy that's trying a little to degenerate into a dictatorship, but it still retains the core elements of an electoral information autocracy. They're trying to conduct procedures resembling elections, they continue to rule by controlling the information space, and they still have no ideology. If this is fascism, then you need an ideology. And where's the ideology? There isn't one. By and large, they don't have a cult of the leader—no one walks around with a poster, a portrait, or draws one. The main thing is that there's no ideology. This is what distinguishes autocracy from totalitarianism and a totalitarian system. Therefore, there is no fascist dictatorship."

But they are trying to impose all sorts of “traditional values”...

"It's a very weak thing, one they themselves don't believe in. Everyone understands what it is, and it's not an ideology. Tomorrow it could turn completely around, and the same people who are now championing 'traditional values' could go and get married, and they'd be completely exhausted. And we wouldn't even be surprised; it's completely natural. I'm not talking about their sexual orientation, but their political views. They were communists, and now they've all become democrats. These people are the same: one day they're for traditional values, the next day they'll be for liberal ones, and they don't care. That's the main trick of the current Russian elites—they don't care. The only ideological force that exists in Russia now is us, the liberal movement, liberal politicians. There's no one else at all who's supported for ideological reasons. The rest are either supported because they're in charge, or simply not supported. No one has supported communists for ideological reasons for a long time, just like those pro-war types like Strelkov and Prigozhin." This became clear when Strelkov was jailed, and no one even batted an eye. No one but us has any real ideological or political support. Therefore, if any changes occur in Russia, we will play a very important role. No matter how much they say, "There are few liberals," we will be the only ones with real public support. No one else will have it.

Is it possible that with the changes in Russia will come nostalgia for Putin?

— It will definitely happen, because Putin is postponing and delaying all the problems. He's somehow maintaining a relatively acceptable present at the expense of the future. When Putin leaves, there will be many problems: there will be a sharp decline, and things will be difficult for a while. Yes, many people will say, "Under Putin it was..." Firstly, our job is to convince and explain. Secondly, c'est la vie, such is life. People will blame the reformers who come after Putin, and often for all of Putin's sins. We already saw this when Gaidar suddenly became the main culprit of all our problems. We've already seen this, and yes, there is a risk that the same will happen. But no matter, the country will move forward. Yes, some people may fall into these millstones completely unfairly, like Gaidar, and be hated, although there is no reason for it. And that is very unfair and not good. But this is a matter of the personal fate of certain individuals, and the country will move forward.

Many Russians are currently experiencing apathy. How can we shake them out of this state?

— Talk to them honestly, believe in them, and don't treat them like empty spaces, like they're incapable. It's all nonsense—everyone can do anything. When the opportunity arises, they'll do everything. Even now, we see queues for signatures. I've never seen anything like this, and I've led many campaigns in Russia, and I've never had a queue at my headquarters. I've always had to force it. So, you go, persuade, call, knock on doors, and they send you packing. You drag a candidate through the roof, and even then, they only get 25%. And here, they come on their own. That's a dream come true for any chief of staff. This has never happened before. Everything is fine in Russia. The fact that this happened to Nadezhdin now is irrelevant. It could have happened to someone else. What's important here is that people are against the system. They use every legal opportunity to speak out against it, when it doesn't put them at personal risk.

What should Russians remaining in the country do now to stop the war?

"You have to seize these moments when you can safely speak out against it, and then do it. Just don't sacrifice yourself; you can't go to jail. Under no circumstances should you go to jail. First and foremost, you need to make sure you're safe, and secondly, when the opportunity for legal protest arises, like now, do it. There was Duntsova, and other situations crop up from time to time. You have to find those moments that exist. And then you have to keep living. Don't think that your only goal in life is to change the regime in Russia. That's a sure path to jail. Don't go to jail, live. If you see an opportunity, work there. A small crack opens, and you need to stick a crowbar in there. But that's if there's a crack, and you shouldn't just run around with a crowbar in the street—you might scare a big tiger that's also running around there, and it might eat you without even noticing. So don't reach into a tiger's mouth."

How and when can the war end?

"As soon as Russian society withdraws its support for Putin, it will end immediately. There will be elections now, and maybe they'll withdraw their support. Large rallies might break out. Russian society must withdraw its support for Putin. Everyone must understand that Russian society no longer supports Putin and is ready to take action—then the war will end, because it's impossible to wage it with internal instability. And there's no other way it will end. The Ukrainian Armed Forces won't overthrow Putin; they don't have that ability. Even if they liberate their territories, they won't be able to end the war because Putin will remain, and the causes of the problems will remain. The cause of the problems is Putin, who is waging a war and firing missiles. Only Russian society can defeat Putin. As the joke goes:

"Comrade Stalin, I invented the red button. You press it and that's it—America will crumble to dust."
"Okay. But how does it work technically? How does it happen?" "The engineers will figure that out."

That's not how it works. You liberate the territories, but what will happen to Putin? Nothing will happen. He'll only fight harder. I'm not saying that liberating territories is pointless. Naturally, it's the task of any state to liberate its people who have fallen under occupation; that's natural and understandable. What I'm saying is that it won't end the war, because the planes firing missiles fly over the Caspian Sea, not over Crimea. And even if you liberate Crimea 10 times, those planes will still fly over the Caspian Sea firing missiles. And they're not manufactured in Crimea, and the tanks and soldiers don't come from Crimea. That's if we're talking about Crimea, and I'm not talking about Melitopol. So, it won't end the war at all; it might change some things, but it won't end it. Only Russian society can end the war.

There are increasingly frequent concerns that Russia might attack Europe. How do you feel about this?

"It sounds like nonsense, because Russia no longer has an army, no resources. It didn't have one before, but it certainly doesn't now. As for a ground invasion, that's simply impossible. Escalating this whole thing into a missile war—I don't know anything about that, I can't make a prediction. The longer Putin stays in power, the greater the risks for everyone, that's for sure."

What is waiting for Russia?

I don't know, everything will be fine.