A surprise for Siluanov?
A decline in inflation, a hit to mortgages and an increase in deposit rates are the first thoughts that come to mind when the Central Bank once again increases refinancing rate. But there are also some non-obvious conclusions that I noticed.NotMoscow" economist Vsevolod Spivak.
Containing inflation is achieved, on the one hand, due to the fact that a higher key rate reduces consumer activity – those who have money will obviously prefer to spend less and put it in the bank at a high interest rate.
On the other hand, an increase in the interest rate usually reduces investment activity, because more expensive loans make it unprofitable to finance projects with borrowed funds.
That is, the direct purpose of raising the key rate is to reduce consumer and investment activity. However, the economist emphasizes, statistics indicate not a decline but an increase in investment, which weakens the effect of the rate increase.
«Investments are likely growing as a result of both measures to support the military-industrial complex and the expansion of measures to support investment activity at the federal and regional levels. In this regard, it can be assumed that the actions of the regions, federal authorities, and the Central Bank are not coordinated.“,” the expert believes.
The financial analyst agrees with him. Oksana Mashchenko that holds the top spot. "You can now imagine the face of Siluanov, who spent all these months preparing a budget for 3 years at a rate of 15%." she writes on her Telegram channel.
According to Mashchenko, a rate of 23-25% in 2025 is no longer a negative scenario; it's practically a given. The negative scenario now is 27-30%...
The Central Bank sets the key rate eight times a year. The last time it was raised Just over a month ago: from 18% to 19% per annum. At the time, the Central Bank cited high inflation as the reason for its decision.
A week ago, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov claimed about "stabilizing inflation" in Russia.