Time to read: 11 minutes(s)

Author: Tatyana Rybakova

So, the Russian internet is rapidly becoming isolated from global traffic. The long-mocked "Cheburnet" is becoming not just a reality—in some regions, a complete internet blackout is becoming a reality. Judging by the assessments of experts interviewed by our publication, the only question is which path Russia will take—a completely autonomous internet like North Korea or a more lenient ban on foreign resources like China.

On November 7, a government decree granted Roskomnadzor the right to control the entire Russian segment of the internet. According to documentRKN has the right to: issue commands to telecom operators and providers, including blocking certain resources; reroute internet traffic through special technical means (the aforementioned FSB "black boxes"); change data transmission routes; activate filtering, blocking, and protection tools if the agency deems it necessary; and, in the event of threats, take manual control of the entire RuNet. Essentially, RKN now holds the power to kill the entire Russian internet: if it wants, it can block any website without explanation; if it wants, it can shut down the entire internet, whether in a single city or the entire country.

Many perceived this decree as the result of an infighting: Roskomnadzor was already doing all this, they claimed, and now it could ignore the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media's opinion. The ensuing mass internet and mobile phone outages proved this to be untrue, even though Roskomnadzor's mandate only comes into effect on March 1, 2026.

First signals

However, the first obvious reaction was also administrative: the government commission on legislative activity approved The Ministry of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media's proposed amendments to the Law on Communications require operators to disconnect services at the request of the FSB, in which case they will be exempt from liability for breach of service agreements. This appears to be an attempt to reassure mobile operators and providers, who have thus far been the "scapegoats" for all manner of internet outages.

They imposed it at the same time restrictions SIM cards: Upon entering Russia, they were turned off for 24 hours – "to combat drones." This affected not only foreign SIM cards, but also Russian ones – although Russian SIM cards were now able to log in using a link sent by the operator.

And then “local initiatives” began to pour in.

В Ulyanovsk Mobile communications "around sensitive facilities" were shut down, according to the authorities, until the end of the so-called "secondary military operation." Entire neighborhoods of the city and populated areas of the region were affected by the shutdown. As a consolation, they point to Volgograd: even before the adoption of the aforementioned documents, he lived without mobile internet and continues to live without it – and nothing. There were even funny pictures From RKN about how great it is to enjoy life without all these modern gadgets.

Then the news started pouring out like from a leaky sack: people started reporting about the lack of internet Kaluga areas, YekaterinburgThen mass blackouts even started wired InternetInitially, residents of the Kostroma, Yaroslavl, Ivanovo, Vladimir, and Murmansk regions, as well as the Krasnodar Territory, experienced this problem. Rostelecom attributed it to damage to the main cable, but complaints soon poured in from new regions – from Mari El and Udmurtia to Samara, Pskov, and Chelyabinsk. Digital Report portal saidthat the nature of the outages "is more reminiscent of the isolation scenario envisaged by the law on the sovereign RuNet" than a simple cable break. This is also indicated by the fact that, according to reportedly Sota, which opened a "whitelist" of websites. However, this information was obtained from only one source and has not been confirmed by other observers.

It is especially hard for residents border regions: their phones often pick up networks from neighboring countries—as a result, without even leaving Russia, they experience a 24-hour ban on their SIM cards. Residents of the Belgorod, Pskov, and Amur regions, among others, have encountered this problem.

"Everyone lies"

Before the shutdowns began, the propaganda campaign carried out a huge amount of work. The Ministry of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media created the very same "whitelist" of websites that, it was claimed, would work during any internet shutdown. It was even significantly have expanded – True, rumors about Telegram being included there weren't confirmed, but so what? Telegram itself is actively advertising a certain  Telega, which is supposedly a version of a messenger designed to bypass blocking and operates without a VPN, although an investigation revealed that the app sends all data to a Russian VC. The shutdowns themselves were presented as protection against drone attacks, and the Russian messenger Max, which is being pushed so aggressively on citizens that it borders on violence, was advertised as protection against phone scammers.

But drone attacks are not decreasing or becoming less successful, and scammers have become very good at not only use Max, but they also send it quickly phishing links to activate SIM cards after entering Russia. Meanwhile, no one doubts anymore: the only thing all Russian devices and messengers do reliably is inform on their users. And the information doesn't just end up in the hands of law enforcement agencies—they're also perfectly capable of selling it to the same scammers. It's gotten to the point where Roskachestvo advised Avoid discussing "sensitive information" near the Russian "smart" speaker "Alice." Against this backdrop proposal The State Duma's decision to fine websites for authorization via foreign messengers is already perceived as the final transition to "Cheburnet."

And citizens are becoming increasingly irritated—even those who are quite conformist. Parents of children with diabetes complain, that they can no longer remotely check their glucose levels—a vital necessity. Relatives of the author's friend from the Tula region, who support the war and talk about how good everything is in Russia, complain that they have to change their VPNs more and more often. Interviewees from various regions increasingly send their emails—"just in case." Meanwhile, acquaintances under drone attack, living near a "sensitive object," angrily say that the attacks haven't decreased, but now they can't even call the fire department if something happens: almost no one has landline phones anymore. "Everyone's lying, and we can do whatever we want," concludes the interlocutor, who until recently insisted that all the imposed restrictions were only beneficial, and the creation of the Max messenger was "a step toward true digital sovereignty."

DPRK or China?

In fact, there's no longer any debate about whether Russia can "turn off" the internet. The question now is: will the restrictions be like those in China or North Korea? The Chinese approach means blocking most Western resources, but at the same time, it maintains a powerful domestic ecosystem of information, entertainment, shopping, and so on, satisfying all citizens' daily needs. "About 90% of Chinese people have no need for Western resources. The remaining 10% who want to access information from the West can do so, albeit with difficulty, but this percentage of dissatisfied people poses no threat to the authorities," says economist Sergei Petrov.

North Korea took a different approach: it created its own completely autonomous internet, disconnected from the outside world. "The DPRK even has a special research institute where trusted individuals collect information deemed useful for citizens from the external internet—for example, educational programs—translate it into Korean, and post it on the internal internet," says Petrov.

In his opinion, all the Russian authorities' actions so far appear to be following the Chinese path. "Of course, no one can predict what the leader will come up with, but so far, as far as I know from circles close to decision-making on this issue, the goal of completely blocking the internet to the level of North Korea is not even being considered," says Petrov. He says the current objectives are being targeted: first, to cut off the "bridge" from the external internet carrying independent media and bloggers' broadcasts deemed "propaganda," and second, to redirect traffic to their own resources, where everything can be monitored. "Meanwhile, the powers that be install Max on a phone purchased specifically for it, and even write there that it's not a phone call," Petrov laughs.

IT entrepreneur, political activist, and technical director of the independent publication Most.Media, Maxim Novichkov, holds a different opinion. In his opinion, Russia will be completely cut off From the outside internet for three years. In the first year, the Ministry of Digital Development's "white list" will become the default mode for any threat—from "exercises" to elections. Max will become a mandatory element of interaction with the government, schools, etc. Calls and media on WhatsApp and Telegram will be stifled by technical blocks and tariffs. Blocking will become more effective thanks to the improvement of the DPI system, and accessing the outside world via VPN will become increasingly difficult. In the second year, the "white list" will become a permanent "safe access mode"—everything else will become slower, with delays and frequent "maintenance." Max will become a super-app, encompassing everything from everyday life: messaging, payments, government services, e-voting, doctor appointments, and delivery. Moreover, for some services, authorization through Max will become mandatory. Each user will effectively be assigned a permanent digital footprint with a behavioral profile, and isolated "malfunctions" will begin to coincide with police operations, electoral and protest surges. In the third year, internet traffic in Russia will be completely manageable, all foreign services will be unavailable, and VPN use will be criminalized—access only with special permissions to specific, approved VPNs. DPI will learn to reliably detect mass blocking bypasses, and SIM cards and user devices suspected of attempting to bypass blocks will be "tracked," where Max will serve as a preliminary investigation, with cases transferred to the prosecutor's office and the shadow ban of such users.

"This is, after all, closer to China than to North Korea," Petrov notes. However, in his opinion, such tight control over the internet is still impossible to achieve. "Firstly, China doesn't have complete control over the internet either – they've concluded that it's both ineffective (the battle between blockers and circumvention programs is as endless as the battle between armor and shells) and, most importantly, too expensive. It's far more effective to create their own alternative, one that most citizens simply don't need to leave," he says. Meanwhile, private businesses are creating their own internet universe – although the state is strongly encouraging them in these efforts. Finally, following North Korea's path would condemn oneself to technological degradation, which could be fatal for Russia.

But most importantly, new methods of internet communication are on the way – via satellites. The first was Elon Musk's Starlink, which is now developing a system for transmitting internet traffic to ordinary smartphones, without any special equipment. Recently, he launched his own rocket with satellites. запустил Jeff Bezos, owner of Amazon. "It's already competition, so things will move faster," Petrov notes.

Yes, but for now, importing Starlink equipment is considered dual-use goods, and without government permission, that's punishable by prison, argues Novichkov. And pinpointing someone using satellite internet is difficult (the beam is very thin), but it's possible. Even easier is to use good old-fashioned jammers.

And yet, Russia is not North Korea, including in terms of the presence of a huge number of tech-savvy citizens who don't want to live in a "reserve." And they've already created an excellent option. I2P "An anonymous 'internet over the internet,'" says Petrov. "And while it was very slow until recently, now you can even play YouTube videos on it," he says. "If a region is physically disconnected from the external internet at the BGP level, then no internet over the internet works—there's no point from which to establish a connection. The only options left are alternative channels: satellite, foreign SIM cards, radio networks, and so on," counters Novichkov. And the current outages in the regions confirm that this possibility is already being realized. However, a source close to a major provider told our publication that the wired internet outages in several regions of Central Russia were indeed caused by damage to the main cable. "It was just a coincidence—the cable was damaged, and there were widespread mobile internet outages," he explained.

We'll soon see which of the interviewees is right. Petrov himself believes that the West could help Russian citizens avoid being cut off from the global internet. "If it becomes possible to transmit a signal from a satellite to ordinary phones, even if only as text files, something like this could very well be organized." Chekhov Publishing House "Under the auspices of the Cold War-era CIA, which printed and smuggled banned literature into the USSR," he says. Well, the Cold War looks set to begin again—after the fighting ceases. But before then, Western governments are unlikely to be concerned with the battle for the minds of Russian citizens—for now, their only goal is to support Ukraine and prevent the war from escalating into a hot phase.

Meanwhile, good news has come from the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The prosecutor's office there has achieved Uninterrupted operation of payphones in 14 villages of the Tyukhtetsky District, where there's no other connection, let alone internet. They can do it when they want, and they don't forget about the needs of ordinary citizens. So, if something happens, all you have to do is remember the traditional phrase, a staple, one might say, from the USSR: "Got a two-room apartment?"

_{Illustrations generated using AI.}