"The system ate itself": Economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev on the budget disaster in the country's regions
Based on the results of last year, the budgets of 74 regions at once are gone In the red, the deficit totaled one and a half trillion rubles. Meanwhile, the 15 regions without deficits earned only 46 billion rubles during this period. The gap is almost 30 times larger; the rich regions don't offset the losses of the poor.
There was even a shortage Moscow (she was short 230 billion rubles), and also Yamalo-Nenets и Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (84 and 72 billion rubles, respectively).
"It's a disaster," the economist believes Vyacheslav Shiryaev. - This is a signal that everything has been eaten up. The system has consumed itself, and we need to continue to drastically cut spending, at least to avoid constant micro-crises, [when] hospitals aren't paid, schools aren't paid, and so on."
As a result, regional budgets begin to sharply cut their spending already at the beginning of the year. The first to do so were steel Primorsky Krai и Chelyabinsk regionSavings will likely be made by cutting spending on education and healthcare. This includes cutting back on repairs and construction, purchasing new equipment, and so on.
As the economist notes Vyacheslav Shiryaev, Regional budgets typically carry over into the new year with several billion rubles left over, perceived as a kind of safety net. This year, many simply don't have such a reserve (Primorsky Krai, for example, has only 500 rubles left).
According to his forecasts, the reduction in budget expenditures will definitely hit the economy, which will begin to shrink even further (the same contractors who lived on budget orders will begin to part with staff and pay less taxes).
In addition, Shiryaev predicts a reduction in the so-called corruption rent that officials received in the form of kickbacks or contracts for their companies.
“It is precisely the corruption rent that is the basis for the stability of the Putin regime,” the economist believes. — Putin buys the elites' loyalty through corruption, through the fact that you can steal and profit, but you ensure the right results for United Russia and Putin in the elections. Putin will increasingly lose support among the elites."
Shiryaev does not rule out the possibility that local authorities will sabotage the Kremlin's orders and feign efficiency, while public discontent will rapidly grow.
He also notes that the federal government is unable to help plug budget holes in the regions because it itself is experiencing a deficit. One of the key indicators of this is applications for budget loans from commercial banks.
"Moscow is shifting responsibility downwards," the economist states. — She doesn't want to think or know anything about the regions' problems. "Solve it yourselves. Do whatever you want."
The full version of Vyacheslav Shiryaev's interview with the journalist To Sergei Guskov See here.
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