Do you have some gas?
Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and logistics are increasingly impacting life in Russia. How is the worsening fuel shortage affecting the economy and life in the regions?
Author: Tatyana Rybakova
Already in 53 regions are fixed Restrictions on gasoline sales continue to grow every day. Typically, the situation unfolds as follows: first, fuel disappears (or purchase volumes are limited) from independent gas stations, then restrictions begin at the chain gas stations of major oil companies that own refineries. After the drone attack on a refinery in the Moscow region Kapotnya (owned by Gazpromneft), fuel restrictions have also affected the capital - or rather, they began before, but it was situational and not everywhere, and now everything is strict: according to eyewitnesses, they only fill the tank; they don't allow canisters. The lines, however, aren't very long yet. The outlook, apparently, is not very bright: as experience has shown, it is impossible to properly protect the fuel infrastructure: if drones penetrated the Moscow Oil Refinery through three or five air defense rings around Moscow, and the air defense at the oil refinery itself, in all likelihood, became the culprit blasting An oil tank with an epic roof collapse, what can we say about regional refineries? And there are also fuel pipelines, pumping stations, distribution hubs... Not to mention fuel transportation by road and rail, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively targeting in the occupied territories. Meanwhile, at the Eurosatory 2026 arms exhibition in Paris, the Ukrainian company Fire Point presented A drone with a range of 2700 kilometers—it's capable of reaching Western Siberia…
Moscow's neighbors, get ready
If we talk about the regional impact, today the most difficult situation — in the south of the country. Not to mention occupied Crimea, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are methodically turning into the "Island of Crimea," strict restrictions have been imposed in the Krasnodar Krai, where Crimean residents have gone to refuel due to the lack of fuel on the peninsula. Restrictions affected Moscow and the surrounding region, and St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Gasoline sales limits can be found in Samara, Smolensk, Arkhangelsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Kemerovo, and other cities—the shortage has even reached the Far East. The shortage is currently localized and often depends on the retailer: for example, Tatneft imposes the strictest limits of 20 liters of gasoline and 40 liters of diesel per car—practically the limit for the Krasnodar Territory. Rosneft and Lukoil are imposing more lenient limits—up to 90-100 liters per car. Gazpromneft apparently hadn't imposed any limits before the fire at the Moscow Oil Refinery, but two days after the drone attack, information surfaced about restrictions at its gas stations. And, of course, fuel prices began to creep up. up, although the authorities vehemently deny this.
The burned-out Kapotnya refinery will worsen the situation, but primarily in the regions surrounding the capital. The Moscow refinery supplied approximately 40% of the gasoline and 50% of the diesel fuel on the Moscow fuel market. With the loss of this volume, the capital will either face a severe fuel crisis or be redirected to fuel from nearby refineries. The problem is that refineries in Yaroslavl, Ryazan, and Kstovo, from which fuel was supplied to Moscow via pipelines, were also previously attacked by drones. Although the damage there was less extensive, production volumes fell. This means that fuel from all neighboring regions will likely be shipped to Moscow, depleting their fuel markets. This, in turn, will cause or worsen the fuel crisis in these regions and increase public discontent, which already believes that Moscow relies on them for its livelihood.
Will this last long?
The most important question is how long will this last and how severe could the fuel crisis be?
Sergei Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, counted, that the average monthly oil refining volume has already fallen by 12-13%—and this is a conservative estimate. There are estimates that under Ukrainian drone strikes were about 40% of the country's oil refining, as well as up to 41% of gasoline and up to 44% of diesel fuel.
The difference in estimates is due to the fact that some volumes can be restored fairly quickly, while others may never be. For example, a drone (or missile) hitting a storage tank containing oil or petroleum products seems quite dramatic, but in reality, it only temporarily removes a certain volume of oil. The storage tank itself is essentially a huge, double-layered tank, and quite a number of factories in Russia manufacture them. Manufacturing a new one, delivering it, and installing it takes just a few weeks.
A direct attack on processing units, while perhaps a "small fire," has far more serious consequences: this equipment is quite complex, often imported, and replacing it is difficult, time-consuming, and expensive under sanctions.
This is what happened at the Moscow Oil Refinery, where drones struck both key oil refining units: the first on June 12 (at the time, authorities lied that the drone only hit the refinery's gate), and the second during the epic attack on June 18. This fire was ignored in the context of the burning tank, meanwhile, both units, supplied During the plant's reconstruction in 2020, five old ones were replaced with Western-made components.
Incidentally, the Ukrainian Armed Forces initially focused drone strikes on fuel tanks—perhaps because they were easier to hit, perhaps because it was initially important to deprive the Russian army of fuel immediately—but subsequently began targeting critical components that are more difficult to restore. This also exacerbates the fuel shortage.
How long the crisis will last depends not only on how quickly the damaged facilities can be restored (and in the case of the Moscow Oil Refinery, for example, this could take many months), but also on how frequent and successful new attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be. Given the growing power and effectiveness of drone attacks, there's no hope of relief.
Fuel imports can help: from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc. intelligencethat Russia is planning to import fuel by sea from Asia. This likely refers to fuel imported from the Indian refinery of Navara Energy, a holding company controlled by Rosneft. This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that Igor Sechin, Rosneft's chief executive officer, He pledged At a recent shareholders' meeting, we agreed to fully provide fuel to socially significant facilities, budgetary enterprises, industry, and agricultural companies.
A seasonal decline in fuel demand in the fall, after the holiday season and harvest, could also help. But again, it all depends on who prevails in the race between oil refiners and Ukrainian drone operators. For now, at the beginning of summer, we can expect the peak of the crisis to be yet to come.
From airplane to combine
While a lack of fuel at the gas station is merely a nuisance for motorists, there are industries where the shortage will have a dramatic impact.
There are already reports of a shortage of jet fuel, even though its export has already been banned. "Our plane was grounded in Ulyanovsk because there wasn't enough fuel to get to Moscow," a friend wrote. This is confirmed. information A number of airlines have received notifications from fueling complexes about their inability to provide aircraft refueling services under existing contracts at airports in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Ufa, and several other cities. Following a meeting at the Ministry of Transport, fuel had to be quickly transferred to these airports from other regions. Prices are also rising—due both to the rising cost of the fuel itself and to the effective end of the damper (subsidizing domestic fuel prices) for jet fuel. counting According to the Avionika Telegram channel, the actual cost of jet fuel for airlines in June, on average, roughly doubled compared to May, and in July, the increase could reach three times that of May. Accordingly, airfare prices are also rising—by an average of 1–1,5 rubles per passenger. However, this is an average—for some destinations, the increase could be much more significant.
In general, all forms of transport will become more expensive, even those that don't run on gasoline or diesel—simply because the shift in passenger and freight demand to other modes of transport will automatically drive up prices there as well. Given the vast distances in Russia, transportation accounts for a significant share of freight—for small-item goods, it can reach 40%. Utility rates may also increase more than the previously planned 7,5% increase for October (remember, this is also an average for the hospital). This means consumer inflation will rise.
In fact, this is exactly what the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is talking about. said She spoke directly at a press conference on Friday, explaining the Central Bank's purely symbolic reduction in its key rate—from 14,5% to 14,25%. "The rise in fuel prices (due to Ukraine's strikes on refineries and the gasoline shortage) could increase inflation expectations among the population. The Central Bank calls gasoline a marker commodity, and the impact of this dynamic on costs across a wide range of goods has yet to be assessed. The fuel crisis was one of the factors in the rate decision," she stated.
Fuel is a direct component of the consumer basket, accounting for 4,7%. If gasoline prices continue to rise at the same rate, the direct contribution to inflation by June could be around 0,2 percentage points. However, secondary effects will follow. Logistics costs and those of agricultural companies will increase, which will be passed on to final prices. Inflation expectations of the population and businesses could rise again. As a result, we could see another 0,1-0,2 percentage points. counted Investment banker Evgeny Kogan. Elvira Nabiullina has reason to worry. And she's not alone.
But rising prices aren't the worst thing. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, recently telling about the excellent harvest prospects, now the alarm is sounding: this year's harvest is in jeopardy, there are no diesel reserves for the equipment. True, blames For some reason, it's not Ukrainian drones or Russian air defense that she's talking about, but... Nabiullina. But we'll leave that to the minister's conscience, but the fact remains: the farmers really do have big concerns, that they will be able to purchase the necessary amount of fuel for the harvest. Considering the rashness with which Russian authorities banned Armenian fruit and vegetable produce, there's no doubt that the shelves, if not empty, will at least shock shoppers with their prices.
What will happen to the environment?
Prices are prices, but money can't buy health. And the attacks on oil refineries could pose a serious health threat to our citizens. As if there wasn't enough fuel oil on the beaches of Tuapse and Anapa, now "oil rain" is falling in the vicinity of the refineries that were hit by drone strikes: Perm, Ryazan, and Yaroslavl. After the fire in Kapotnya, "oil rain" fell in Zheleznodorozhny, Lyubertsy, and Balashikha. The city of Kotelniki was blanketed in black soot from the fire.
Meanwhile, the volatile hydrocarbons contained in smoke can trigger asthma and allergies, and benzene is a carcinogen. Soil exposed to "oil rain" is unsuitable for growing fruits and vegetables, picking mushrooms and berries—even flowers grown in the soil should not be picked or brought into the house.
The most long-term consequences, of course, come from oil products leaking into water—from seawater to rivers. Fish and other aquatic life die, animals coming to drink become ill, and if water treatment is inadequate (and in Russia, up to 70% of water treatment plants are deteriorating), oil products and their combustion products can even enter drinking water. To complete the picture, the few Russian resorts are effectively becoming unpopular tourist destinations—vacations surrounded by fuel oil certainly won't improve your health.
Allowing refineries to produce Euro 3 gasoline instead of Euro 5 while continuing to sell it under the same brand isn't exactly good for the environment. This, too, is a result of drones knocking out refineries. Lacking the ability to perform complex fraction separation, refineries were able to produce so-called straight-run gasoline—essentially the same kind poachers in Chechnya once produced in homemade "samovars." Experts say the delicate engine of a modern foreign car is ruined by such gasoline after just a few dozen kilometers. But costly repairs for car owners aren't the worst thing: the exhaust from such gasoline contains lead, dioxin, and a host of other harmful impurities, contaminating everything in the vicinity, including the air up to the fifth floor. These exhausts are especially dangerous for children: they are small, and the concentration of harmful substances is higher closer to the ground.
Russia traditionally pays little attention to the environment, but the current situation could make the environmental consequences of oil refinery and pipeline fires the most long-lasting and difficult to address. After all, you can live without air travel, you can pay more for food and gasoline, but how can you live without clean air, clean water, and clean soil?
Unfortunately, we shouldn't expect the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries to end just yet. The Ukrainian president directly linked the attack on the Moscow oil refinery to the Russian missile attack on the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. "If Kyiv burns, Moscow will burn too," he said. He called on Russia to immediately begin peace talks. Vladimir Putin didn't respond. While the Moscow oil refinery was burning, he was speaking on Summit ASEAN in Kazan reported that the number of tourists from Asia in Russia has significantly increased.
