"Prices will rise by almost 15%": Russians' inflation expectations jump to a two-year high
In July, Russians' inflation expectations for the coming year jumped sharply to 14,7%. This is almost 2,5 percentage points higher than the previous month and the highest level in two years. These data follow from the Bank of Russia's latest bulletin, "Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment."
Why are citizens and businesses concerned about the rise?
An increase in negative expectations was recorded across all population groups—both respondents with and without savings. This surge occurred in particular after the Central Bank itself officially raised its inflation forecast for this year to 6–7%, compared to a target of 4%.
Moreover, companies' price expectations also rose sharply—to 20,2 percentage points (+4,4 percentage points compared to June), returning to the elevated levels seen in 2024–2025. Ultimately, Russian companies cited rising fuel prices as the main reason.
Estimation of real price growth and consumer sentiment
According to public perceptions, prices in the country have already increased by 15,1% over the past year. Consequently, the inflation rate observed by citizens is two and a half times higher than the official Rosstat statistics. For example, survey respondents most often attributed the price increases to rising gasoline, medical services, and housing and utilities prices.
However, analysts surveyed by the regulator assess the situation slightly more cautiously and raised their inflation forecast for the end of the year to 6,2%.
As a result, Russian consumer sentiment has noticeably worsened: the confidence index has dropped more in one month than in the entire previous year. Specifically, the share of people who prefer to save their spare cash has fallen to an 11-year low, as citizens fear the depreciation of their savings.
