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Wildberries Wild Card

What are the risks of attacks on marketplace warehouses?

Author: Tatyana Rybakova

Ukrainian drone strikes on Wildberries warehouses temporarily overshadowed even the ongoing attacks on refineries and other energy infrastructure. The internet is flooded with videos of sellers crying over lost goods. Many admit they can't pay their loans or taxes. Meanwhile, less than half of Wildberries' largest logistics warehouses have been damaged so far, not to mention other marketplaces, and the attacks are unlikely to end there. This threatens serious consequences for businesses, consumers, and the Russian budget. But even more serious consequences are intangible.

Chronicle of attacks

Wildberries has approximately 40 major logistics centers in Russia, 19 of which are located in the European part of the country. Of the 20 largest warehouses, 16 are located in the Urals. Ten of these had already been attacked by drones by last Saturday, with half of them almost completely destroyed.

Of the 20 largest warehouses of the marketplace, the warehouses in Belye Stolby (Moscow region, 120,000 m) remain untouched.²), Krasny Bor (Leningrad region, 90,000 m²), Saratov (95,000 m²), Penza (90,000 m²), Samara (85,000 m²), Ufa (80,000 m²), Thule (80,000 m²), Sarapul (Udmurt Republic, 75,000 m²), as well as warehouses located beyond the Urals in Novosibirsk (100,000 m²), Omsk (70,000 m²) and Vladivostok (70,000 m²).

Chronicle of attacks on Wildberries warehouses

date	Property	Area, m2	Notes
18.07	Elektrostal, Moscow region	230 000
18.07	Kotovsk, Tambov region	100 000	partially resumed work
20.07	Koledino, Moscow region	250 000	the damage is minor
22.07	Krasnodar	150 000
22.07	Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai	120 000
23.07	Voronezh	100 000	The main damage was caused to the Russian Post warehouse located across the road, but the warehouse has resumed operations.
24.07	Saint Petersburg (Utkina Zavod)	18 000
24.07	Shushary, Leningrad region	170 000
24.07	Simferopol	6 000	no data on the object's condition
24.07	Zelenodolsk, Tatarstan	130 000	the damage is minor
24.07	Tver	150 000	There is no confirmation that the damaged warehouse belongs to Wildberries.
25.07	Ekaterinburg	158 000	the parking lot is damaged

^{Author's calculations}

A significant event occurred on Saturday night: Ukrainian drones also reached a warehouse in Yekaterinburg. However, the warehouse premises remained intact; the parking lot caught fire from "falling drone debris," as the report stated. It can be assumed that the number of drones allocated to the marketplace warehouses is currently insufficient, which is why the attack was unsuccessful. But since Ukrainian drones have already reached both the Omsk Oil Refinery and the Tyumen Oil Refinery, there is no doubt that sooner or later, warehouses in the Urals and Siberia will also come under attack. Or will they?

Why Wildberries?

The question of why Ukraine is attacking only this marketplace's warehouses, leaving Ozon and Yandex.Market alone, is becoming increasingly common, sparking conspiracy theories. Even the Russian Post warehouse that caught fire in Voronezh was clearly targeted due to its location—it's located across the street from a Wildberries warehouse.

The simplest explanation is that it's the most significant. Wildberries has become the primary source for Z-volunteers to purchase equipment for the front: armor kits, drones and attachments, fiber optic spools, and so on. A simple search of the marketplace reveals a multitude of offers. However, the same products are also sold on other marketplaces; Wildberries is simply the largest. Wildberries' share of the Russian online retail market is 45%, and together with Ozon, it controls 77%. Meanwhile, 52% of electronics and 30-32% of non-food retail are purchased on marketplaces; Wildberries sellers generate approximately 2,1-2,5% of the revenue of all small and medium-sized businesses in Russia.

However, conspiracy theories are also multiplying.

The most common theory is that not only Suleiman Kerimov but also Anton Vaino, the head of the Presidential Administration, and his first deputy, Alexey Gromov, have a stake in the marketplace. Both are considered Kremlin "hawks," and therefore, the attacks on Wildberries' logistics centers should encourage them to join the "peace party."

Another theory linked to Vaino and Gromov is that Wildberries unilaterally changed the terms of its contract with sellers on July 7, before the attacks began, refusing to accept responsibility for storing their goods in the event of drone attacks, because intelligence had informed Vaino and Gromov of the operation in advance.

An even more conspiracy theory: that the attacks on Wildberries were "ordered" by Ramzan Kadyrov, taking revenge for his defeat in the battle for the marketplace.

Each of these versions in itself works to Ukraine's advantage: discord within the Russian elite is only to its advantage. And the last one roller The story of Magyar (Robert Brovdy) offering Tatyana Kim, the official head of Wildberries, a billion-dollar donation to the Ukrainian "Come Back Alive" fund, despite its anecdotal nature (it also includes demands to record a video admitting Russia's guilt and voicing a popular Ukrainian chant about Putin), could have serious consequences in the current climate. After all, if Ukrainian drones now shift their attention from Wildberries' warehouses to those of its competitors, then, given the current paranoia in the Kremlin, it's possible the marketplace's owners will be suspected of ties to Ukrainian security services. And if they don't figure it out themselves, those same competitors will.

However, there is one real action that could stop the attacks: if Wildberries removes military and dual-use goods from its assortment and publicly announces this. Other marketplaces could protect themselves in the same way. However, it appears that these marketplaces are not voluntarily violating international and Russian laws. Therefore, it is the sellers themselves who must demand that this online "military store" be removed from their fur coats and underwear.

What are the consequences?

Even if the attacks on Wildberries' and its competitors' warehouses cease, the consequences of these attacks are already quite serious. A potential shortage of goods isn't the most pressing issue—it will be temporary, in any case, until the necessary supplies are imported from China and elsewhere. And even price increases—given the slowing economy and wages, these will be limited by declining demand.

What is far more serious is that Ukrainian drones have struck one of the largest segments of the Russian electorate, which either approves of the war or is indifferent to it.

I've heard more than once from Russian friends, businessmen, and mid-level managers: "You know I'm against Putin and the war. But I've never made the kind of money I'm making in Russia now, and I never will." And it's true. Those same marketplace sellers have "rose," in part due to the departure of foreign brands from Russia and other restrictions. At state-owned companies and government agencies, department heads and above have received substantial salary increases. I'm not even mentioning those working in structures linked to the war, or the IT professionals who agreed to work for the state. Even the increased tax burden has had a much lesser impact on this segment of the population than on other entrepreneurial groups.

It now turns out that this extra money comes with some inherent risks. A drone might fly into the marketplace warehouse where your goods are stored, and you won't receive adequate compensation. Because it's impossible to receive compensation when at least 100-150 billion rubles worth of goods are lost, and Wildberries' entire annual profit last year is lost. made 175 billion. That working for the government could end in prison—because your boss stole money or was "eaten" by competitors. That you could simply be killed because drones continue to attack warehouses, oil refineries, and military production facilities.

Right now, Wildberries, according to sellers, delays removal of goods from warehouses, despite the fact that the cost of such a service is quite high - 250-280 rubles per unit of goods. Support measures The sellers' benefits are also modest—mostly benefits and discounts from the marketplace itself and friendly banks. The relatives of the victims were offered compensation of 2 million rubles—less than for deaths at the SVO. Clearly, any other companies and organizations would be forced to take declaratory measures against the victims as well.

But perhaps, as Russian propagandists suggest, this will only unite Russian citizens in their hatred of Ukrainians and increase support for Putin? It's not impossible, but it's doubtful.

First, even if those same marketplace sellers now direct their anger at Ukraine, their second move will be anger at the Russian government, which is unable to prevent such attacks and "resolve the issue decisively." Such sentiments are already spreading like wildfire among war correspondents and Z-fans. And those who are more Catholic than the Pope are, as a rule, even more terrifying to the Pope than his opponents.

Secondly, judging by the videos recorded by the affected sellers, their anger is currently directed at Wildberries—there are no curses directed at Ukrainians. And then this anger will likely shift to the government. Currently, the marketplace sellers and Tatyana Kim herself are asking the government for tax breaks. It's quite clear that the government, even if it heeds these requests, cannot provide any significant concessions. expanding hole The budget doesn't allow for it. It's logical to assume that after this, entrepreneurs will turn to Putin. It's easy to predict his response—and equally easy to understand that the victims' reaction won't be a riot, of course, but the mood could change dramatically. And sooner or later, this mood will influence the behavior of the ruling elites: it's one thing to remain loyal to Putin when he enjoys majority support, and quite another when the dictator who unleashed the war is universally hated and reviled.

These sentiments, coupled with discord among war-affected elites, could have a far greater impact on the outcome of the war than the economic losses from the burned Wildberries warehouses.